week 12 -- 11/12 to 11/16

[deadeyedick]

Posted on other board and thought I had it here but could not find it so copied and posted here again - hope this one works

TUESDAY: weather should not be a factor like last week in the MAC
4* - 304 - Bowling Green -8.5 -- WINNER

2* - 306 - Buffalo over 53.5 -- WINNER

BG Reasoning: As stated last week, IMHO, BG is best team in MAC and have found themselves and playing very well of late and have the best D in this game. BG has not been involved in a single score game since the beginning of October and WMU tends to play close, one score games but NIU whacked WMU last week by 2 TD's and allowed only 178 yds passing. I'll take the BG defense, with strong secondary, to shut down WMU passing O -- BG is 2nd in MAC passing yards allowed (NIU is first) and over the recent 5 game stretch, they've only given up 1 TD via the pass. Mizzu transfer QB Baselak should have a field day here.

Buffalo over Reasoning: I do not trust either defense in this one and both teams should score a bunch. Stat wise, I have it about even but again, both defenses are not real good despite some games where they played somewhat respectable and tackling is not a forte for them. Both teams like to play up tempo and create more opportunities for scores as they wear down each others defense.

Thoughts on CMU/Toledo -- on the fence here with a slight lean to Toledo here, but line has bounced quite a bit (from open 14 up to 17 yesterday and not back down to 14.5) an that gives me cause to pause. CMU is a DR candidate this week and last week came though as a DDDR against a very good BG team - but still lost by 10. I hate to lay over 2 TD's albeit Toledo has a few days rest on CMU and CMU is traveling but Toledo needed 22 points in the 4Q last week to take down EMU by 1, who out stated Toledo. CMU lost to EMU in a high scoring affair (38-34 -- where they needed 22 4Q points to win). Just too many conflicting factors right now and need to sort it out and see if a play can be found. Probably best to avoid it.

-- well, I couldn't resist & at KO, played the Rockets at -15.5 for 2* and it came through -- had to have some action and did my due diligence -- WINNER -- sorry I did not get it posted

back with more plays later

 

[deadeyedick]

Wed adds: bit of a bow wow night -- and bucky two DR candidates in Ohio and Miami OH and riding with one DR candidate in NIU

3* - 312 - Northern Illinois -13.5 (bought down 1/2 at Caesar's)

2* - Eastern Michigan +11.5

1* - 307 - Kent State +31.5

Reasoning:
Eastern Michigan/Ohio: line movement works for me here as it has jumped up a couple of points even though the public bet is over 60% of the tickets and 60% of the money: and, total has also move 4+ points. Kind of makes you feel we are swimming with the sharks and hence the small play. Ohio has to be one of the biggest surprises of the season in the conference even with a QB that has a 7/6 TD/INT ration. They blasted Kent State last week and they capitalized on numerous errors (defense, special teams, and offense -- complete and total disaster) by Kent State that padded the margin of victory. EMU should be focused here as they host Buffalo next week and they need one more win to go bowling. EMU is an up tempo team and QB Snyder should do some damage vs Ohio DB's. Defensively, EMU should hold their own vs a run heavy Ohio team.

Kent State/Miami OH -- man I hate to ask a bad team to win for me and I have a sinking feeling that Kent State could not even score tonight given they have not won a game all year. I am confident we all see the mismatch here but damn, 4 TD's and 1 FG is an awful lot to cover even with Miami having only 1 conference loss. Miami has played only one game where that spread wo/b covered and all the other games are much closer than 31.5. As bad as Kent State is, they are 60% in playing conference games under the 31.5. But it just seems to way EZ to play Miami. I feel Miami's slow tempo and pace will help slow the game and scoring down and Kent State can get 2-3 stops, then the number of possessions & slow play will limit Miami's opportunities. Any they have NIU on deck in a key game for the conference lead. Feel they may just peek ahead and coast here to avoid injury. So, I'm going to ride this big, ugly, stinky, and odiferous dog.

Akron/NIU: public is all over Akron (70% in money and 68% in number of tickets) yet line has come down 1.5/2.0 points -- and, 4 points down from 18 back when it opened and took action (11/10 is was 18). NIU is rolling and can score on anyone and score quickly. I do not believe Akron (allow 36+ ppg and over 400 ypg) can get enough stops to limit NIU's opportunities and NIU has a good success rate for passing & scoring quickly. On the D, they play a bend but don't break as they severely limit TD's in the red zone and Akron is not offensive juggernaut. NIU defense will stuff the ground game and force Akron to the air, which they are not very proficient at and one of the main strengths on defense is the secondary for NIU. This one could like the death from 1000 razor cuts as NIU should game on the LOS on both O and D. Go Huskies!!!

_________________________
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